The Crime and Safety Blind Spot: Introduction

In a world fraught with finger pointing and fearmongering, public discussions on crime and safety often end either in ideological echo chambers or in partisan attacks and provocative extremism. However, personal opinions on improving our justice system are rarely black and white. Many people occupy middle ground, seeking something in between “tough-on-crime” and abolishing prisons. They favor an approach that balances accountability and rehabilitation as well as fairness and effectiveness.

Unfamiliarity with laws and practices, widespread misinformation, and conflicting research leave individuals with limited perspectives on how to improve the criminal justice system. People naturally gravitate toward like-minded peers and select news sources that reaffirm their beliefs, both of which reinforce this blind spot. Our series will highlight varying perspectives, pose critical questions, confront discrepancies, and introduce new ideas to counter this issue.

Is crime increasing or decreasing? 

Even seemingly straightforward questions can prove difficult to answer. While research consistently shows a significant decrease in crime since its peak in the 1990s, most sources agree that crime rates spiked after the onset of COVID-19 and have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. More recent trends are unclear. Variations in state laws, inconsistent agency reporting practices, crime under-reporting, and the impact of media coverage all contribute to ongoing ambiguity. Here are some examples.

• Public perception: A recent Gallup poll showed that 63 percent of Americans view crime in the United States as an “extremely serious” or “very serious” problem. In contrast, only 17 percent consider crime in their local area “extremely serious” or “very serious.” Similarly, while 77 percent of Americans believe crime has increased nationally compared to last year, only 55 percent perceive an increase locally. Republicans were significantly more likely than Democrats and independents to consider crime a “very serious” problem and to believe crime has increased both locally and nationally.

• Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI): Data conveyed via the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting program showed that most violent and property crime rates began to decrease after an initial pandemic-related spike. In 2021, low participation rates among reporting agencies (about 60 percent) cast doubt on the accuracy of initially reported declines. However, the trend continued across most offense categories in 2022 and 2023, with much higher participation. Carjacking and motor vehicle theft is the one category of crime that remains elevated.

• National Crime Victimization Survey: Surveys collected by the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics showed a rise in total violent crime victimization in 2022. Notably, participants reported only 42 percent of these crimes to police. The 2023 survey will be complete in September 2024.

• Homicide data from individual cities: This data is considered the most reliable for identifying violent crime trends. Overall—though cities like Washington, D.C., Memphis, and Seattle are exceptions—homicides have decreased since 2021 and continued to decrease by nearly 20 percent across 204 cities in the first quarter of 2024.

Can fear influence public opinion?

When we feel attacked, whether by real-world threats or ideological opposition, our instinctual response is often to shut down and entrench ourselves in our existing beliefs. This can create a disconnect between perception and reality, especially when it comes to assessing threats.

For example, when high-profile or particularly heinous crimes are extensively covered by the media or continually highlighted during political campaigns, it can lead the public to believe these events are more common than they actually are. This phenomenon causes people to estimate the likelihood of an event based on how easily an example can be recalled rather than on objective data. Consequently, less prevalent crimes like child kidnappings or mass shootings may be perceived as imminent threats while everyday risks such as car accidents or domestic violence—which statistically pose greater danger—receive less attention.

Similarly, the development and growing popularity of apps like Ring and Nextdoor—where reports of suspicious behavior often outnumber those of confirmed criminal activity—has heightened public awareness of local incidents and potential crimes.

How does this impact policy decisions?

When public perception becomes distorted, sensationalism is often prioritized over practical solutions, influencing policy decisions that may not align with the most pressing needs. Consequently, resources are diverted from more prevalent (yet less dramatic) issues with a greater impact on community safety. To overcome this, we must be willing to challenge ourselves:

• How can I expose myself to data and information outside my normal channels?
• Who can I engage with who thinks differently?
• How can I rethink initially envisioned solutions?
• What concerns or flaws might someone with an opposing view identify?
• How can I approach this issue with more curiosity?

How does crime intertwine with other social issues? 

Some believe that social disorder due to increased homelessness, overdoses, and mental illness has increased the public perception of danger in communities. Others believe these social issues have fueled criminal behavior. Either way, social issues undeniably add an extra layer of complexity to the crime and safety debate.

Some say perception is reality; others say knowledge is power. Accepting both statements as truth, this series will approach crime, safety, and intersecting social concerns from a place of curiosity, allowing readers to uncover answers themselves. We will explore perspectives from the political “left” and “right” and provide research and data to accompany them. We will also discuss data gaps and highlight further areas to explore.

The goal is for these candid insights to encourage constructive dialogue on complex criminal justice topics. Approaching an argument as a war inevitably creates winners and losers, but thoughtful discussions and collaborative solutions can lead to powerful win-win scenarios.

This series will explore the following contentious issues impacting public safety and the justice system:

• Do homeless encampments pose an increased risk to public safety?
• Is mental illness fueling criminal activity?
• Does drug use cause criminality?
• Are smash-and-grabs really closing businesses?
• Are random acts of violence at an all-time high?
• Has the criminal justice system become a revolving door for repeat offenders?