Trump could significantly alter U.S. climate priorities
While there are areas where Trump and Biden’s goals might look similar, such as securing the critical materials supply chain, both Biden and Trump’s approaches to fixing those issues will differ. Additionally, Congressional elections will play a significant role in either Biden or Trump’s approach to climate, as there are limitations to what the executive branch can do, said Philip Rossetti, a senior fellow at the independent research organization R Street Institute.
Rossetti said he doubts a Trump administration would have much interest in climate policy.
“They dipped their toes in the waters in the early years of the first Trump administration, and it wasn’t something they seemed to want to engage in continually,” he said. “They shifted to only addressing this in a broader energy policy framework. To the extent that a lot of these efforts might be climate improving, great. But it wasn’t necessarily the priority.”
U.S. climate approach under Biden
The last four years have seen the Biden administration make “historic investments in climate programs, including renewable energy, pollution remediation programs, multi-module transportation and mobility,” said Shannon Baker-Branstetter, senior director of domestic climate and energy policy at the Center for American Progress, a nonpartisan policy institute…
Baker-Branstetter said the Biden administration has implemented significant regulations. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the Biden administration has issued stronger rules for emissions from power plants and vehicles. Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has also adopted climate rules requiring businesses to report on their carbon emissions. However, the EPA and SEC face strong legal challenges to their climate rules, which threaten their survival, Rossetti said.
Still, the Biden administration’s efforts on the regulatory front send strong signals to the market, Rossetti said. Advancing more regulations will also likely continue to be a significant focus of the Biden administration if he is re-elected, he said.
“Very often, manufacturers and industries have to comply with regulations even if they don’t think that it’s legal because the compliance timeline might be short enough that they could get dinged if the courts take too long to address it,” he said…
Changes Trump could make
Rossetti said a new Trump administration will likely change the social cost of carbon, which estimates the damage done by each ton of carbon emissions, and the benefits resulting from actions to cut carbon emissions.
The Biden administration estimated the cost to be $51 a ton, and the EPA proposed to increase that estimate to $190 in 2022. The former Trump administration estimated the cost to be between $3 and $5 a ton. Policymakers can use the social cost of carbon figure when considering regulatory proposals addressing carbon emissions.
“What I would expect Trump to do is unwind the social cost of carbon in a big way,” Rossetti said…
Rossetti said a Trump administration could focus on making the IRA tax credits more efficient. The IRA has had issues, such as providing credits and incentives to large businesses who had already planned to make clean energy investments.
“The issue is, we’re paying a lot more money to get a very small climate benefit relative to the cost,” Rossetti said.
The former Trump administration did act on certain energy initiatives, Rossetti said. The Energy Act of 2020 funded research and development in electric grid modernization, critical materials security and clean energy technologies. The former Trump administration also advanced several energy initiatives, including carbon capture expansions as well as nuclear and hydropower investments.