Trump’s Victory and its Implications for FERC, Power Markets

Utilities, however, have benefited from organized markets, so that would run into opposition, but FERC can exert significant control over the RTOs, and a new commission might try to expand to help the new administration’s policy priorities, she added. It is unclear which way that will go because in a two-party system, the Republicans still have plenty of internal policy debates, she said, adding that she wonders whether traditional GOP “conservatives” or “Trumpers” will win out. 

Brownell put R Street Institute in the former category and its Director of Energy & Environmental Policy Devin Hartman, a former FERC staffer, told us a lot of the future depends on Phillips’ decision and the makeup of the Senate.

“There’s a few things that I think that Chairman Phillips has worked on that he wants to see through, and so I’m curious to see if he wants to sort of realize that his legacy could still be executed by sticking around,” Hartman said. 

That would be a new situation for FERC with a majority of the party not in the White House until Phillips’ term expires in 2026. When it comes to the Senate, whether the GOP’s majority stays in the low 50s or reaches in the mid-50s would have implications for how easily Trump appointees can be confirmed, Hartmann said. 

A narrow majority would give the most moderate Republicans on the Energy & Natural Resources Committee, like Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), more sway, while a wider margin would allow more conservative voices to take on that role. Hartmann pointed to Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) as an important voice with a larger majority. 

“Senator Lee is a very principled conservative, and while some of the rhetoric on FERC specifically has raised eyebrows, he really believes in executing its role fairly and not favoring certain industries,” Hartman said.

That has been demonstrated in some of the debates around permitting reform where Lee did not want to carve out policies that favor oil and gas exclusively, favoring technology-neutral approaches instead, he added…

A big part of the future of transmission reform depends on where Commissioner See comes down, said R Street’s Hartman. While a lot of the political discourse around the rule has pitted it as trampling states’ rights (one of her top issues), the technical aspects of its changes have been embraced by state commissioners. 

“I think the big question mark will be whether she can decipher the technical merits of Order 1920 from some of the political posturing that we’ve seen from certain states and recognize that actually the states that have been more engaged on transmission issues really do respect the core aspects of Order 1920,” he added.